June 30, 2005
Walters: Senate Redistricting Plan Worse Than Status Quo
Posted by Ben Hoskins at Democracy Market
Dan Walters thinks that the Senate's redistricting scheme is actually worse than the status quo. His reasons? He points out that four of the seven members of the citizens committee would be appointed by legislators and he assumes the appointees will "draw the lines exactly as their political masters wanted. " Furthermore, the Dems plan removes the Governor's ability to veto legislation with questionable district lines. Given this, he feels this plan actually gives legislators even more power to pick their constituents.
I share his concerns, but still believe it is a step (marginally) in the right direction. Two main reasons.
- Call me a pessimist, but beyond Arnold I don't foresee a whole bunch of Republican governors in CA's future. And I tend to doubt a Democratic govenor is going to override redistricting which will help his party or that his parties legislators want to shore up their re-election. I don't recall Davis drastically altering what legislators presented last time. If this is the case, then losing the governor's ability to step in won't matter much in practice.
- Call me an optimist, but I think a "Citizens' Committee" is marginally preferable to the actual legislators. People expect legislators to be political. But there may be a little more public pressure on the committee to not be so blatantly atrocious in redrawing the map. Given this possibility and that legisltators now have complete control over the process, this change strikes me as a marginal gain.
For these two reasons, I think the Dems gave up something - especially to their mind. This plan would be a marginal improvement over having the legislators draw up their own lines and hoping that a (probably) Democratic governor would veto it. It is not acceptable by any means. But it is still a step in the right direction.
Cross-posted at the Bear Flag Special Election Page.
Posted by League Member at 08:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
June 29, 2005
CA Democrats Counter With New Redistricting Plan
Posted by Ben Hoskins at Democracy Market
Yesterday Senate Democrats unveiled their redistricting proposal. Their plan would take redistricting out of the hands of legislators and put it into the hands of (drumroll) people appointed by the legislators. The governor, Senate president pro tem, Assembly speaker, Senate minority leader, Assembly minority leader, California Judicial Council and the president of the University of California would each get to appoint one person to a "Citizens' Committee." For those scoring at home, legislators appoint four of the seven. The Democratic plan would also hold off on redistricting until 2011.
Democrats claim with this plan they "have put politics aside." Senate Republicans disagree, seeing it as an attempt to retain control over the process. To a large degree, they're correct - this is an attempt to maintain a certain level of control over the redistricting process. That being said, it is also a step towards giving up what is now almost total control over the process. If nothing else, the ballot initiative has begun the ball rolling towards some sort of much needed compromise or change.
Cross-posted at the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Steve Greenberg: Sign of the Times for Schwarzenegger
From the Ventura County Star and Steve Greenberg:
Posted by Flap at the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Schwarzenegger: Field Poll Trouble
Posted By Flap at the FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog
California Field Poll Numbers are out for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, SHARP DIMINISHMENT IN VOTER INCLINATION TO RE-ELECT SCHWARZENEGGER:
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's once dominant position to win re-election next year hasdiminished sharply over the past four months. Last February 56% of this state's registered voters said they were inclined to vote for Schwarzenegger for Governor in 2006 should he decide to seek re-election. However, in a just completed Field Poll survey, there has been a complete turn-around in voter dispositions, with 57% now disinclined to support him.
Flap's advice to the Governor:
Update #1
The Sacramento has this, Poll: Governor would lose in '06
Here are the numbers (among registered voters):
Angelides - 46%
Schwarzenegger - 42%Westly - 44%
Schwarzenegger - 40%Schwarzenegger would edge Rob Reiner by 2% and Warren Beatty by 9
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June 28, 2005
California Special Election 2005: 53rd Assemby District
Posted by Flap at FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog
Gordon, a first-term lawmaker and a former mayor of El Segundo, died Saturday while undergoing treatment for a brain tumor.Last year, Gordon, his Republican opponent and special interest groups spent more than $3 million in the fight over the Los Angeles County coastal district, one of a handful of legislative races that were considered competitive.
El Segundo, Flap's hometown, is a small conservative community that often is gerrymandered and swallowed up by more leftie communities to the north or south. However, this time, the legislative districts are more favorable for a Republican pick-up.
But the special statewide election Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger scheduled on Nov. 8 could make it difficult for candidates trying to succeed Gordon to compete for campaign cash."This is a very unusual special election because of all the initiatives on the ballot and because of the exorbitant amount of money that will be spent supporting and opposing those initiatives," said Karen Hanretty, a spokeswoman for the California Republican Party.
Indeed the cash will be tight for the union sponsored Democrats, defending against the Paycheck Protection Initiative and the Teacher Tenure Initiative.
This is one of many reasons why Scharzenegger has already won by calling the November Special Election.
Schwarzenegger has to issue a proclamation within the next two weeks scheduling a special election to replace Gordon. If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote in the primary, there will be a runoff between the top vote-getters in each party.Schwarzenegger can time the runoff to coincide with the Nov. 8 statewide election. If he does that, the primary would be on Sept. 13, said Caren Daniels-Meade, a spokeswoman for the secretary of state's office.
The race for Assembly District 53 could attract several candidates. Two Republicans formed campaign committees before Gordon's death to run for the seat next year: Gordon's opponent from 2004, former Redondo Beach Mayor Greg Hill; and Torrance Councilman Paul Nowatka.
Two Democrats also are considering running, Torrance Councilman Ted Lieu and Manhattan Beach Councilman Jim Aldinger.
Although district registration favors Democrats by 6 points and Mike Gordon won by 8 points this special election favors the Republicans. Republicans will be able to raise the campaign cash while the Democrats will be hard pressed.
Flap handicaps a close race.
Stay Tuned.
Cross-Posted to The Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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June 27, 2005
Special Election 2005: Teachers Union Pines for the Old Days When They Could Buy the Governor
[Originally posted by Insider at Independent Sources.]
Teachers already pay yearly union dues of $570 and now California Teachers Association (CTA) is tacking on another $50 to fight Gov. Arnold’s propositions in the upcoming special election. Since one of the issues they are fighting is such a minor adjustment to their outsized job protections (moving the time to get tenure from 2 years to 5), it will be interesting to hear what they can possibly say against it that won’t offend 99% of the state. Five years to earn life-time job protection is still incredibly generous. How many Independent Sources readers have anything close to that?
We think this is just a sideshow to the primary “education” issue anyway, which is how unions collect and spend member dues. This is no small issue. With over 335,000 members, the CTA can tell (not ask) their people to ante up for political donations and the union can promote whatever causes and candidates they choose with it. It doesn’t matter if a member has views, opinions or perspectives different than the union’s; members can’t opt out of this forced donation policy.
Among other things, the union decides what politicians get their members’ money. If you are a Republican and don’t want your money going to the DNC, well that’s just too bad. The CTA has historically been one of the largest contributors of “soft” money to the DNC. They were big contributors to former Gov. Gray Davis and of course were upset when he was fired in the election that brought Arnold to office (in part because they weren’t able to enjoy the full return on their investment that they spent to get him into office).
It should be noted that the relationship between Davis and the CTA was love/hate. The CTA loved the access to the governor and the ability to buy his positions and Davis loved the union’s deep pockets and squeezed them hard whenever a big bill that affected them was on his desk. Wrote Jim Boren, Editor Page Editor of the Fresno Bee:
“He [Davis] can ask for $1 million from the CTA just before taking a position on a controversial union-backed bill…”
The union thinks that it’s wrong to require the permission of members to take their money and give it to causes and candidates they don’t support. Another argument being floated about by the union is that requiring permission will bog down their decision-making. This from the union with an 800–member governing body.
One thing for certain, both sides will be spinning the press, conducting focus groups, and fine-tuning messages all to figure out which ones resonate with voters. I don’t think the teachers unions will get far with moderate voters until they come up with better ones than I’ve heard so far. In fact, I bet in the end they’ll just label the measures “anti-education” and stay away from specifics. Nice catch-all and totally irrelevant.
In a related but slightly different topic, if you ever wonder why our kids have trouble speaking in anything other than unintelligible youth slang, you might want to hear how their teachers talk themselves. In researching the above I came across this quote given to the LA Times by 12th-grade government teacher Charlie Young. If it is any indication how teachers talk in the classroom then it’s a surprise that our kids can talk at all. Young’s quote regarding the special election:
“Now, it’s like, ‘ OK, bring it on.’”
I wish I was making it up. I’m surprised he didn’t say “Oh, my gosh!” And this guy has, like, tenure.
[Independent Sources will be covering the special election with increasing frequency so check back often or subscribe to our RSS feed. In the meantime, you might enjoy some of our previous posts on education.]
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The LA Times' Michael Hiltzik: A Self-Contained Guano Ecosystem
[Originally posted by A Senior Administration Official at Independent Sources.]
Michael Hiltzik used his "business" column in June 16th's Los Angeles Times to make another over-the-top attack on Governor Schwarzenegger and the fall initiatives.
In a meandering piece that closed with Hiltzik comparing Schwarzenegger to Joseph McCarthy, he cites "fake," "shameless" "low blows" and "baldfaced lie(s)" with examples that mysteriously only include Republicans.
"I expect to spend the summer in a hammock under the elms," he writes, "while ripe nuggets of electoral hypocrisy fall upon me from the skies, like pellets of guano."
It turns out that the guano isn't falling on Hiltzik -- he's producing it.
He writes in the piece that one of the initiatives is "A redistricting reform proposal that can't reasonably be implemented before 2010, according to Schwarzenegger's handpicked secretary of state, Bruce McPherson."
But that's not what McPherson said. We turn to the more-reliable Sacramento Bee and find that McPherson did not think 2006 was achievable, but that lawsuits -- not implementation -- would be the problem in 2008:
"There's no way we can make it by next year," he said. "It's questionable if we could make it by 2008, and we probably could do it by 2010 ..." ... McPherson said a timeline to create new political districts for the 2008 or 2010 elections would allow time for legal issues to be resolved before voters cast ballots.
In the same paper, columnist Dan Walters confirms:
"McPherson expressed an opinion that if the measure were to pass, there's "no way" that new districts could be drawn in time for the 2006 elections, and that because of near-certain post-election lawsuits, it's questionable whether they would be in place by 2008 - pretty much what Schwarzenegger's own aides have been saying."
Normally, of course, after a census districts are redrawn in time for elections two years later. There's no reason to think the new process would be any more complicated.
So if there is a problem with implementation beyond two years, it will be Hiltzik's own anti-reform allies causing the delays. And that's all the more reason to pass the initiative ASAP, so the legal process can run its course and the state can move forward.
Perhaps by then Hiltzik will have figured out who's really producing all that guano on his lawn.
(Mickey Kaus says "Michael Hiltzik works himself into the same paroxysm of anti-Arnold rage he worked himself into three weeks ago" here.)
(Independent Sources is your one-stop shop for coverage of bias at the Los Angeles Times, and Michael Hiltzik drives us nuts)
Posted by League Member at 02:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
June 26, 2005
Governor Schwarzenegger: Not the Time to Turn Squishy
Posted by Flap at FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog
Dan Walters of the Sacramento Bee has an excellent piece today, Now's not the time for Schwarzenegger to turn 'squishy':
As Iraq's seizure of Kuwait escalated into war in 1991, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher reportedly cautioned President George Bush against "going squishy."It's a fundamental tenet of both military and political warfare. Once you launch a war of either variety, you'd better be ready to see it through, or you merely suffer casualties without achieving any objective.
Arnold Schwarzenegger should remember Thatcher's words because he may be backing away from the war he launched to change the tenor of the Capitol, and in doing so, undermining the legitimate cause of reform.
In fact, the MSM is abuzz with the fact that the Democrats in the Legislature and the Governor are negotiating a deal which would eviscerate the Schwarzenegger reform initiatives.
MSM pieces are:
Schwarzenegger, Democrats Exploring Truce
Governor, Democrats seek truce
Both sides explore compromise on package of reforms
With polls showing his once-soaring popularity dropping to Gray Davis-like levels, and his two most important ballot measures trailing, Schwarzenegger last week showed signs of squishiness. He didn't exactly beg Democrats for a face-saving deal, but by issuing a semi-mea culpa, appeared to be heading in that direction.Asked by a reporter whether he accepts any responsibility for Capitol friction, Schwarzenegger replied that "all of us in this building can share blame, all of us, including myself.
"People make mistakes sometimes, and I think that we learn. These are very clear messages that we must work together. And so I am looking forward to that. I really look forward to working together and to solve this together, because it's the best for the people of California. They feel good when things work well, when people work together."
But, the Governor held this Girlie Man press conference before the next day Field Poll was released showing the Paycheck Protection Initiative and the Termination of Pregnancy Notification Initiative winning.
The Governor was premature in his gloom but then again the MSM has been all over his ass for weeks with falling poll popularity numbers.
Truth is, the California public often expects results from politics that are mutually exclusive, such as high levels of services and low taxes. Californians recalled Davis because he personified the unacceptable status quo, and elected Schwarzenegger on his promise to clean up the mess in Sacramento, but at the same time, paradoxically, they expect politicians to work together for change.Schwarzenegger could not clean up the mess if it took the cooperation of Capitol politicians who helped create it in the first place - the deficit-saturated state budget being the prime example. If he was to fulfill voters' expectations and his own promises, he had to become confrontational.
The mea culpa Schwarzenegger should issue is not for creating Capitol angst, but for misleading voters that reform would come bloodlessly. He finally realized his error but never admitted it as he shifted to a more confrontational mode a year ago, and ever since has confused Californians - a populist warrior one day, a teddy bear the next.
The case for fundamental reform is crystal clear. If California's dysfunctional state government is to have any chance at responding to the state's many serious policy issues - transportation, water, the budget, education, energy and housing, to name but a few - it needs to radically change.
The Truth is the Governor has positioned himself well despite transient poor popularity poll numbers but he does not seem to realize it.
The Governator has already won this election and re-election in 2006 -- if he stays the course!
The specific reforms that Schwarzenegger has championed are not the complete answer, but their enactment would send a message that the public supports change. There is room for a genuine compromise that would make significant progress toward governability, but with Schwarzenegger's declining popularity, any deal that the Capitol's entrenched interests would accept would be - if history is a guide - merely a veneer that would allow the unworkable status quo to continue.Schwarzenegger's dilemma, whether to battle on or retreat, is not unlike the one that his political mentor, former Gov. Pete Wilson, faced in 1992.
Republican Wilson, like Schwarzenegger, had inherited a huge budget deficit and, to continue the parallels, had forged fairly good relations with Democratic legislators during the first year of his governorship, much to the dismay of conservatives in his own party.
As their budget crises continued into their second years, however, both Wilson and Schwarzenegger found themselves in eyeball-to-eyeball confrontations with the Legislature. Wilson, like Schwarzenegger, was savaged in the media and saw his popularity plummet.
But Wilson prevailed in the Legislature, and his single-minded toughness brought him a landslide re-election in 1994. When Thatcher warned the elder Bush about becoming "squishy," she also reminded him that her political standing soared when she fought and defeated the Argentinians in the Falklands War.
Pete Wilson did prevail and handily won a second term. Although a moderate on social issues, Wilson was a former Marine and advance man for Richard Nixon.
He was anything but a Squishy Politician or a Girlie Man.
Now it is time for Arnold to PROVE that he is not.
Cross-Posted to The Bear Flag League Special Election Page
Posted by League Member at 06:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
June 23, 2005
California Election 2005: Latest Field Poll
Posted by Flap at FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog
The Latest California Field Poll has been released:
Public Employee Union Dues, Required Employee Consent for Political Contributions (Paycheck Protection)
It prohibits public employee labor organizations from using dues or fees from its members for political contributions unless the employee provides prior written consent.57% majority of both registered voters and likely voters are inclined to vote Yes on the initiative, if the election on this proposal were heldtoday. This compares to 32% of registered voters and 34% of likely voters who are inclined to vote No.
Termination of Minor's Pregnancy, Waiting Period and Parental Notification initiative.
It would require parental notification before abortion for a minor under age 18, except in cases of a medical emergency or with a parental orjudicial waiver.Voters are narrowly supportive on this issue – 48% in favor and 42% opposed among all voters, and 48% Yes and 43% No among likely voters.
Prescription Drugs; Discounts initiative
It would establish a discountdrug program overseen by the Department of Health Services and enable certain low and moderateincome residents to purchase prescription drugs at reduced prices. It also imposes an annual 15dollar application fee and authorizes the Department to contract with pharmacies to sellprescription drugs at agreed-upon discounts and negotiate rebates with drug manufacturers. The initiative is sponsored by the pharmaceutical industry.The poll finds it leading in the early going, with registered voters supporting it by a 60% to 23%
margin, while likely voters favor it 57% to 26%.
Prescription Drug Discounts: State Negotiated Rebates initiative
It would provide prescription drug discounts to low income Californians funded through rebates
from participating drug manufacturers negotiated by the California Department of Health Services.
The initiative is sponsored by Health Access.The poll finds it also leading by a somewhat smaller margin – 54% to 28% among all registered
voters and 48% to 33% among all likely voters.Virtually all of the voter subgroups examined favor each of the two prescription drug discount
proposals.
Again, these are early polls, but, finally some encouraging news for the Governor.
The Public Employees will be turning up the heat and watch for even more demonstrations.
Update #1
Dan Weintraub has a correct analysis of the new polls: A sudden comity in heated Sacramento battles
This supports Flap's contention that the Governor has already won.
Posted by League Member at 07:57 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
June 22, 2005
California Special Election 2005: Field Poll
Newly released California Field Poll results are out and the MSM are already beating up on the Governor and the ballot measures:
California voters oppose two of three controversial ballot measures Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is backing in a special November election, according to a Field Poll released on Wednesday.The Republican governor recently called a special election to put his policy priorities to voters as ballot measures after failing to persuade the state's Democratic-led Legislature to support them.
Why Did Schwarzenegger Fall So Far So Fast?
You have only to come to the Chinatown Health Center in San Francisco to get an earful about why Arnold Schwarzenegger has lost popularity.A new Field Poll finds only 37% of the state's registered voters approve of the governor's performance, while 53% disapprove. That's an 18% drop in the governor's approval rating since February, and it makes Schwarzenegger one of the state's least-like governors in recent history.
Martha Hawthorne, a public health nurse at the center, says the fall in fortune stems from Schwarzenegger's choice of opponents.
"He's chosen the wrong people to trash," said Martha Hawthorne, a public health nurse. "He's chosen nurses and teachers, who are the public workers most visible and most responsible for our immediate needs of our families in California."
With polls showing tepid support for his performance and his agenda, a conciliatory Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger conceded Tuesday that he shares some of the blame for Californians' discontent.``I guarantee you that all of us in this building can share blame. All of us, including myself,'' Schwarzenegger said at a Capitol event where he wanted to talk about the budget, but was peppered with questions about his lackluster poll numbers. ``People make mistakes sometimes, and I think that we learn. These are very clear messages that we must work together. And so I am looking forward to that.''
Schwarzenegger's comments came as the independent Field Poll found that about one in three Californians approve of his performance -- sobering news for a governor accustomed to public adoration. Since embarking on a series of controversial government-overhaul efforts in January, the Republican governor's numbers have plunged, even as he called a special election for Nov. 8.
Notice the Spin yet?
Notice the Made with a Union Label Commentary and the Democrat Talking Points!
Notice Arnold is an elitist and is picking on the little guy, notwithstanding California has major budgetary problems and just recently recalled a Governor who sold out to these special interests.
Protests Expected In Schwarzenegger Silicon Valley Appearance
The opinion polls are way early and there are more folks in California planning their vacations than contemplating a November off-year election.
The races for each initiative, except teacher tenure (which will win handily) will tighten, millions will be spent on ad campaigns and the Governor is already a winner.
Cross-Posted from FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog
Posted by League Member at 10:27 AM | Comments (0)
Field Poll numbers on the ballot initiatives
Posted by Calblog
California Insider's got them at the crack of dawn.
The news is mixed for Schwarzenegger. Teacher tenure is ahead by a wide margin. His budget reform and the redistricting initiative are losing badly.
Posted by Justene Adamec at 07:13 AM | Comments (4)
June 21, 2005
Schwarzenegger Slumps in Field Poll Says to Democrats: Let's Make a Deal
Posted by Flap
With the release of the latest California Field Poll, California Governor Arnold Swarzenegger said Tuesday that he wants to seek compromise with Democrats on the state budget and on issues he has placed before voters for a November special election. The Poll conducted between June 13-19, following the Governator's call for a special election in November:
1. The Field Poll finds the Governor's approval rating sliding to 37% among registered voters statewide, while 53% disapprove of how Schwarzenegger is handling his job.2. More voters oppose (52%) than favor (37%) the Governor’s call for a November special election,
even when the additional costs of holding the election are not listed in the question.3. There has also been a big decline in the public's appraisal of the job that the state legislature is
doing over the past four months. Last February 36% of adults and 34% of registered voters
approved of the state legislature. Now, the approval figure among adults is 26% and just 24%
among registered voters.4. Voters believe that neither Schwarzenegger nor the legislature is negotiating with the other in
good faith. Rather, pluralities see their actions as being characterized more by confrontation and
posturing, with little room for compromise. Currently, 52% see Schwarzenegger's actions as being mainly confrontational, compared to 32% who believe he is negotiating with the legislature in good faith.5. In three separate Field Poll surveys conducted last year, a sizeable plurality of voters said they
would be more inclined to support the Governor over leaders in the legislature if the two sides
disagreed on an important policy matter. However, in two surveys completed this year, voters
have been turning away from their earlier support of the Governor. Currently, 44% say they are
now more inclined to support the positions of legislative leaders, compared to 33% who would
tend to side with the Governor.6. Voters express little confidence in either the Governor or state legislature to do what's right in
resolving the state's budget deficit. Just one in six voters (17%) say they hold a great deal of
confidence in Schwarzenegger to do what is right in dealing with budget deficit, while 49% have
not much confidence. Another 32% report having some confidence in him.
Opinions of the legislature are even more critical. Only 5% report a great deal of confidence in
state lawmakers to do what's right to resolve the budget situation, with 54% expressing little
confidence in that body. Another 40% have some confidence in the legislature to do what is right.
Today at a Capitol News Conference the Governor said:
"I feel that there is an agreement to be had. We can resolve this, and then we can go together to the special election — Democrats and Republicans alike — and also that we can solve this budget. It's all about the will. Do we have the will to represent the people of California?"
Schwarzenegger did not directly offer an olive branch to Democrats on Tuesday but said voters delivered a message in the poll.
"It is a very clear message from the California people to all of us at the Capitol _ work together," he said.The special election will go forward even if the two sides compromise on some of the ballot measures. If they do, the Legislature by two-thirds vote could place a set of compromise proposals on the ballot. That could create a scenario in which Schwarzenegger would campaign against the initiatives he initially placed on the ballot.Schwarzenegger said he also wanted the two sides to pass a state budget "as quickly as possible," preferably before the state's fiscal year begins July 1.
So, is the Governator being a Girlie-Man for negotiating with the Girlie-Men of the California Legislature?
Or facing the realities of an unfavorable poll?
Stay tuned.
Cross-Posted from FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog
Posted by League Member at 09:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
"Re-regulating" Power Initiative On the Ballot
Posted by Ben Hoskins of Democracy MarketLost amongst the hoopla of the governor's poor poll numbers was the fact that the eighth and final voter initiative qualified for November's special election. Its sponsors call it a "re-regulation and blackout avoidance" initiative. Which I guess means that if you oppose it you are pro-blackouts and anti-regulation. Actually, the SacBee properly notes:
The support/opposition roundup so far is as follows:Despite the convenient labels, California never really deregulated electricity when the state Legislature changed the ground rules of the once-monopoly business in 1996.
Now, the ballot measure wouldn't really re-regulate, although the consumer group promoting it likes to call it a "re-regulation and blackout avoidance" initiative. What it would do is thwart any expansion of something called "direct access," a way that big businesses and other power users can bolt from their utilities and buy power from independent providers.
- The Gov. and the states large for-profit utilities have not taken a stance on the position.
- Business consumers are opposing it. Additionally, CalEnergyBlog reports CPUC President Michael Peevey will oppose it.
- The Alliance for a More Unionized, err, Better California is supporting the measure.
I don't know about you, but I tend to get worried when I see an initiative brought to the ballot by a "San Francisco-based consumer group" that limits economic choice and policy options......
Posted by League Member at 07:54 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Forecast: Sluggish California economy through 2006
Posted by CaliforniaConservative.org
S.F. Business Times reports: "An economic report out Tuesday predicts continued slow growth for the U.S. economy through 2006 and growth that is slower still for California's.
That's why Gov. Schwarzenegger has got his hands full, and needs the voter's support.
The California economy is a picture "of an economy not at the start of a new expansion, but very near the end of an old one," wrote UCLA Senior Economist Christopher Thornberg in the UCLA Anderson Forecast of the California and national economy.On the plus side, taxable sales are up 10 percent so far this year, over last, investments other than in real estate are rising, office vacancy rates are declining, and airports and seaports are busy, Thornberg reported.
But on the minus side, personal income growth has been slow and taxable sales and wages are out of balance. Sales are driven by consumer demand, which is driven by the "wealth effect" of a hot real estate market, he stated. In other words, people are spending more because their homes are more valuable, not because they're getting larger paychecks.
California's economy could weaken further if the real estate market cools off, Thornberg warned. "Prices don't have to go negative to have an impact. Just 15 percent to zero percent [growth] is enough to start the dominoes falling."
Last week, Arnold appeared on FOXNews for an interview with Bill O'Reilly. In discussing how to deal with the issues facing California, Schwarzenegger summed it as follows:
First, "Stop the bleeding"
Second, "Heal the patient" - referring to his reforms
Third, "Build for the future"
Logical. Very straight-forward. Makes perfect sense.
Putting the California economy back on track is going to require reforms of existing spending practices. Democrats don't want to accept that fact.
RELATED:
Schwarzenegger's Initiatives: Special Election on November 8, 2005
Political Branding: Democrats Call Schwarzenegger’s Reforms
“An Election About Nothing”
See the BFL Special Election site
Posted by League Member at 06:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Posts that should be here
But here didn't exist then.
Special Election 2005: Teachers Union Pines for the Old Days When They Could Buy the Governor -- Independent Sources
Jacko Upstages The Governator, but Special Election Set Anyway -- Matt Szabo
Tenure Is Bad For Education -- Democracy Market
California Voters to go to polls in November 2005 -- Boi From Troy
Posted by Justene Adamec at 03:37 PM | Comments (0)
Early Polls
Posted by KG of California Mafia
There is a poll out, done by Field (pdf) that shows that the special election doesn't seem to be too popular with voter. Here's some analysis from the SacBee.
There is another troubling aspect to the poll, the governor's approval numbers seem to be falling as well.
Here are the key numbers:
*Arnold's approval/disapproval - 37/53 for June
*Support for the special election has fallen from 51% in February to 37% in June
*When the "cost" of the special election is included support drops to 28%
*The legislature's approval rating is 24%, continuing to fall
*This is an interesting one: only 32% of those polled believed that the governor was involved in good faith negotations (down from 42% in February). That compares to 25 and 27% for the legislature.
*Also rather surprised by this one: those polled would support legislative leaders' positions over the governor by a 44-33% margin
*Yet 54% of those polled have "not much" confidence in the legisature to fix the budget deficit
*49% have "not much" confidence in the governor to fix the problem
Given the non-stop union commercials villifying the governor, these numbers aren't that surprising. But I don't expect these numbers to hold. People are tired of politics as usual and probably see this as politics as usual. Once they see what is going to be on the ballot, and it looks like it is going to be a full ballot, I have a feeling the governor will gain some support. If only becuase he will be seen as actually doing something.
Speaking of what's on the ballot, an energy initative has qualified.
Posted by League Member at 07:17 AM | Comments (0)
Governator: College Protests Inspired by Unions
Posted by FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog
California Governor Arnold Swarzenegger has dismissed protesters who heckled him during his commencement speech at Santa Monica College (his alma mater) on last Tuesday.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, responding publicly for the first time to the protesters who heckled him at a commencement speech, said he believes most students were attentive and appreciated his words.Schwarzenegger dismissed the jeers and catcalls he endured during his speech Tuesday to about 600 graduates at Santa Monica College, telling Fox News Channel's Bill O'Reilly that the protesters were inspired by unions who oppose his November special election.
"It was very clear that there was a difference between the students who very much appreciated my speech, and they were sitting there and giving me a standing ovation, and then 100 people in the background, all the way up to the right of the bleachers. They were organized by the public employees' union," Schwarzenegger said Thursday on O'Reilly's show.
"So these were all union people that were organizing this demonstration," he said. "It is not the ordinary people out there. It was not the students that were protesting. The students had great respect and they enjoyed my speech."
Schwarzenegger persevered during his commencement address, competing with catcalls and whistles from the audience. Some students and faculty members also turned their back on the governor as he spoke.
Ironically, Santa Monica College, the Governator's alma mater has benefitted from his tenure as Governor.
Schwarzenegger has not cut community colleges at all, but in fact has boosted spending in his first budget and in his current proposal. The fee increase he backed a year ago, from $18 per unit to $26, still left California's community college costs the lowest in the nation by far, and it also helped tens of thousands of needy students who do not pay any fees at all qualify for additional financial aid. In effect, it put a modest additional burden on the middle class to help the poor - something you'd think might be popular in this bastion of income redistribution.
The protests were organized by ANSWER, a militant anti-war group whose members hand out socialist literature and chant things such as "Long live Lenin, long live Marx."
The Governator is fighting back with class.
Stay tuned!
Posted by League Member at 06:52 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Arnold Hits the Lows
California Insider reports that the Governor's approval rating has hit 37% among registered voters.
Any way you look at it, this is a disastrous way to start a special election campaign that is going to be a referendum on his leadership.
Of course, this poll is before the Governor starts a series of commericals charming those voters. When Davis hit rock bottom, he had trouble selling himself. Arnold doesn't have that problem.
Posted by Justene Adamec at 06:19 AM | Comments (0)
June 20, 2005
Welcome
Posted by Calblog
The Governor has called a special election for November 8, 2005. Currently, 7 initiatives have qualified for the ballot. The summaries are here.
Parental notification before a minor can obtain an abortion.
Teacher tenure track lengthened from 2 to 5 years.
Public employee unions cannot spend dues for political purposes unless the employee consents.
Changes Prop 98 spending limits.
Changes to the redistricting process. See Fair Districts.
2 initiatives on prescription drug discount plans.
Posted by Justene Adamec at 06:58 PM | Comments (1)