Call me crazy. I'm still waiting for Cheney to step down, although it appears that they've just shipped him off to the undisclosed location. Still, I've watched this race for a while, without daily commentary, and my conclusion is that Kerry is toast. It's not going to be close. A Mondale-level loss wouldn't surprise me, although Calblog husband can't bring himself to hope for more than a Dukakis-style loss.
Yes, the polls are close, and when you watch the state-by-state races for electoral votes, it is even closer. The campaign is just heating up, though. Most of what we talk about in the blogosphere, such as the details of the Swift Boat veterans, and the constant flip-flops, are just now hitting the national consciousness. That Kerry actually met with the Viet Cong in France while the Vietnam war was going on is the next Swift Boat ad. Americans have heard about the flip-flopping but most of what they've seen in the convention. Now, they'll pay attention and see the difference. It'll be interesting to see if he can maintain a consistent position from the first debate to the last.
In addition, the wheels are coming off the campaign cart. The headlines are not good. Even the L.A. Times will have trouble burying it all after the jump. Joe Lockhart in the middle of the CBS scandal. Kerry suggesting that he knows better than Prime Minister Allawi what it's like on the ground in Iraq. Now Teresa has suggested that Osama will be produced just before the election.
Bush is just starting to campaign seriously. I expect the nation to again be surprised during the debates when they discover that the conventional wisdom that Bush is dumb and inarticulate is simply untrue.
Kerry is toast.
Posted by Justene Adamec at September 23, 2004 07:53 PM | TrackBackGotta luv ya, Justene, for your determination to ride the "Cheney Conspiracy Files" meme right to the bitter end. ;-)
I'll add my attempt at speculative whimsy ...
Maybe Cheney will step down in between the election and Bush's second inauguration.
As far as Ho Chi Kerry being "toast," I'm not so sure. I can't allow myself to get my hopes up.
Kerry and the Dems are (forgive me, xrlq) rabid pit-bulls, and the White House is the meat. Bush is in between the dogs and their meat; I expect all sorts of heck to break loose between now and election day.
I'll breathe a sigh of relief only when Bush is the last man standing after all of the Dem's dirty tricks and post-election lawsuits have been unsuccessfully expended.
Until then ... I'm still nervous.
Kerry is Bob Dole.
Seriously, he's going to get beat, and beat badly.
Here's my electoral college tally prediction:
Bush 315
Kerry 219
Most interesting call: Bush picks up Minnesota. The state has been trending Republican recently, with a series of DFL screwups and good work by Gov. Pawlenty. Recently, GOP registration surged to provide a 4% registration advantage over the DFL, but that might have been erased in the frenzy of registration that comes with presidential elections.
Still, this ain't Mondale's Minnesota.
Posted by: The Angry Clam at September 23, 2004 09:41 PM (Permalink)