Calblog Husband here. Since I accurately predicted, to the percentage point, the results of the October recall, I have gazed into my crystal ball and gleamed the winner of Monday's Iowa caucuses, sparing you the necessity of having to watch Monday evening And now, the envelope, please.
And the winner is.....John Edwards. Yes, you read right, John Edwards. Here is why:
1. Dean is falling like a rock, as Iowans react negatively to his imtemperate remarks. I expect that Dean, with his organization, will come back a little in the final three days, but he will finish second. However, Dean survives to move on to New Hampshire, where Clark looms.
2. Gephardt has a consistent base of support; doesn't do worse but can't break out. He finishes third, and is finished because he won Iowa in 1988.
3. Kerry has been surging, but he will peak too soon, particularly with his toking video, which will not go over well with the large senior set in Iowa. Badly damged, he retreats to New Hampshire, where he will be eliminated.
4. Edwards is surging most of all. You can't underestimate the value of the endorsement from the Des Moines Register, which carries a lot of weight not only in Des Moines but througout the state. For a Democrat, Edwards has run a relentlessly positive campaign. Might not do so hot in New Hampshire, but will run strong, along with Clark and Dean, when things turn south and west.
My final prediction (I may be off a percentage point or two, but this is the order of finish I see):
EDWARDS 29%
DEAN 27%
GEPHARDT 24%
KERRY 20%
Nah, Gephardt will pull it off. Here's my predictions:
1. Gephardt
2.Dean
3.Edwards
4.Kucinich (that's right)
5.Kerry
6.Clark
7.Lieberman
8.Sharpton
Kucinich beating Kerry? That's even more crazy than some of the stuff that Kucinich, who led the City of Cleveland into bankruptcy as a young pup, says and believes.
Posted by: Calblog Husband at January 15, 2004 09:54 PM (Permalink)Won't argue with your predictions, but if Edwards does come out ahead, there will be an all out race on in the primary, and Edwards, I think is probably one of the better candidates on the Dem side to run.
Posted by: Joel B. at January 16, 2004 06:07 AM (Permalink)Winning in Iowa has been the ticket to precisely nowhere, except in 1976.
If Edwards finishes better than Dean, though, I'll turn in my Karnak turban for good.
Posted by: McGehee at January 16, 2004 06:19 AM (Permalink)Kerry has a seven point lead over Edwards in the latest tracking polls. Yeah, those are flaky, but it still means that a bunch has to happen for Edwards to win.
Also, is less than a week before the caucuses, so if you think Kerry hasn't peaked yet, then he can't peak too soon, or at least it would be really tough for him to do that.
Also, I don't think you can underestimate the importance of field organization in the caucuses, which Dean and Gephardt have in spades. The Kerry campaign seems to be pulling for just placing in the top three, which means they're being realistic, and I think they can pull it off. They've got more money, and have been surging just as hard.
Posted by: John A. Kalb at January 16, 2004 09:22 AM (Permalink)CH:
Don't forget, Iowa is a caucus state, not a primary state, and Kucinich's well deserved reputation for flakieness will only help him.
Example: Say your a Kerry supporter. On the day of the caucus, your precinct breaks down 40% for Dean, 36% for Kerry, 14% Kucinich, 5% Gephardt 5% everybody else. (I know, Gephardt is polling much higher overall, but he does best in the poorer, rural areas of Iowa -- the exact opposite of Kerry, Dean & Kucinich's base of support).
So, as a Kerry supporter, what do you do? You don't have enough support to get your precinct to go for Kerry, so you make sure it doesn't go for Dean. Solution -- join forces with Kucinich (which would be sort of a tie for the average Kerry voter). I predict that this dynamic will enable Kucnich to get more support on caucus night than his anemic poll numbers would indicate.