Gray Davis won in 2002 with 47.3% of the vote on a 50.57% turnout of registered voters. [Scroll down to end of each .pdf file]
Right now, folks are suggesting a turnout of about 70% and -- if the early radio anecdotes are to be trusted -- it might be just that. And, because folks might follow DiFi's advice, some folks will vote on the first question and ignore the second. Weintraub suggests about 10% of voters won't vote on the second question.
So, assuming the registration is the same as in 2002 (which it's not), to outpoll Davis' 2002 raw numbers (3,533,490), Arnold will need a to draw about 37.5% of the contingent vote. A number which is pretty close to latest poll numbers.
With all the hay about a tiny plurality electing a putative successor Governor, that's a number worth watching.
Also posted at Pathetic Earthlings.
Posted by Andrew at October 7, 2003 09:06 AM | TrackBackMaybe you have commented on this before--if you have I apologize because it just dawned on me recently. Is the number of signatures required to have a recall dependent on the number of people voting? For example, the current recall required something over 800,000 signatures, which was a percentage of the previous gubernatorial election.
After seeing people on the news last night saying that if Arnold is elected, they will begin a new recall process. So if this turnout is about 40% higher than the previous election, does this mean they will have to obtain approximately 40% more signatures than were required this time? Just curious how all this works and what to expect...
For what it's worth, the relevant section of the California Constitution, Sec 14(b) of Article II, provides:
A petition to recall a statewide officer must be signed by electors equal in number to 12 percent of the last vote for the office, with signatures from each of 5 counties equal in number to 1 percent of the last vote for the office in the county.Posted by: Andrew at October 7, 2003 03:09 PM (Permalink)
A quick note in the middle of my 'lunch' break (don't ask): turnout is high. As of 3 we'd had 360 of 1000 people registered vote, but that's really 360 of ~750 or so because 250 of the thousand had requested absentees.
Given that the polls don't close until 8 that's just absolutely astonishing. In 2002, in the same precinct, we had that many people vote *period*.
Andrew, thanks so much. So that does mean that if a new governor is elected today, the number of signatures for a recall will go up in proportion to today's turnout. Interesting...
Thanks again!
Posted by: Chrees at October 7, 2003 05:36 PM (Permalink)