To put this post in context, allow me to tell a story. In the 2000 election, before the Florida debacle, when we were in the final runup to the vote, my husband kept repeating "wait for the October suprise." My husband is good at picking a catchphrase and repeating it until it is stuck in your head 3 years later. The surprise he referred to was some negative information about Bush that would be released on the eve of the election by the Democrats, timed so the story would have enough time to take hold in the voters' minds but not enough time for a good defense.
I was skeptical. I am often skeptical of the Calblog husband. After all, he swears every year that the Steelers will go to the Super Bowl and win it. The day he predicted came and passed and I was feeling a little smug. Then, the next day, the story of Bush's drunk driving arrest came out. And, lo and behold, apparently the man who discovered the news knew about it much earlier. So I listen to the Calblog husband about the election surprise.
Now Davis tends not to work like that. He tends to release information earlier and use it in frequent campaign ads. This is a different election, though. There's a shorter time frame, Arnold seems particularly able to explan away and resist attacks, and there's a fair amount of anti-Davis feeling that may well deepen if he starts the attack ads.
So I am expecting a September surprise. Something particularly negative about Arnold that will raise its ugly head right before the election. What I can't figure out is what it might be. Surely we have had negative information on Arnold already that exceeds anything I have ever read about other candidates. What else is out there?
Posted by Justene Adamec at August 31, 2003 09:06 AM | TrackBackThe U.S. English story is gaining traction and getting mentioned in big media.
David Horowitz just resigned from their board in disgust over their racial policies but Arnold has been on their board since '87 and still hasn't resigned.
My blog has more. Warning. Left wing blog alert! (PS I enjoy this blog because it's intelligent and informative.)
http://www.polizeros.com/2003/08/31.html#a2535
I'm told the tabloids have had lots of damaging info on Schwarzenneger for years which they've not printed for fear of being sued. I expect lots of sleazy sexual stuff on Arnold will come out the week before the election, when everyone is paying attention and there's little time to respond.
Yes, your husband is correct. The big guns are never fired early in a campaign.
Posted by: Bob Morris at August 31, 2003 10:45 AM (Permalink)I enjoy Bob's left wing blog, too. Of course he is far enough along on the left spectrum that we're both in danger of circling around and meeting each other on the dark side of the moon. Neither of us seems to have much patience for "politics as usual".
Posted by: Justene at August 31, 2003 10:55 AM (Permalink)Indeed, the left and the right both get frustrated at the ploddings of the mainstream, and often spot breaking ideas and trends at the same time, albeit with differing interpretations.
Posted by: Bob Morris at August 31, 2003 11:18 AM (Permalink)Ahnold's (alleged) affair with a 16 year-old girl is the subject of a BBC documentary.
http://football.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,4730399-111619,00.html
This is out there, but hasn't really hit the "radar screen" yet. It is odd that the media will often trumpet "old news" as "new news", but it happens.
Posted by: right-wing vegetarian at August 31, 2003 01:50 PM (Permalink)And to our lefty friend Morris:
The U.S. English thing is a dud. Trying to equate advocacy of speaking English with racism won't fly.
I find it odd that leftists would oppose Ahnold. He's a moral degenerate, abuses women, supports gun control, higher taxes, abortion, amnesty for illegal aliens, won't support Prop 54, etc., etc.,
Boy sounds like Bill Clinton, only with an "R" next to his name.
Posted by: right-wing vegetarian at August 31, 2003 01:53 PM (Permalink)Other September Surprise possibility:
The "gang banged" woman Ahnold discussed in the OUI interview comes forward and says she was raped.
Ahnold supporters are deluding themselves if they don't think that Bob Mulholland is trying to track her down..
Posted by: right-wing vegetarian at August 31, 2003 02:00 PM (Permalink)The only area Arnold is vulnerable is in his business dealings. He made much of his money in real estate development, which can be a dirty business. Look for a revelation in this area, paid off inspectors, zoning or planning boards.
Sex is a non-starter issue in California. dirty business kills, as Simon knows only too well.
Posted by: Chuck at September 2, 2003 10:44 AM (Permalink)