Sigh. I woke up and turned on the news and there, across the screen, was the news that Bustamante has opened up a 13 point lead. Here's the LA Times poll.
Bustamante 35%
Schwarzenegger 22%
McClintock 12%
Ueberroth 7%
Simon 6%
I hate to read too much into a poll when 1. the poll numbers change so frequently and 2. the respondents in this poll have said they may change their vote. That said, Schwarzenegger has yet to make a move and McClintock has moved into the double digits. With Simon out, McClintock will pick up more support.
I wholeheartedly agree with the view that Republicans are splitting the vote. I question the conventional wisdom that it ought to be Arnold.
Posted by Justene Adamec at August 24, 2003 08:06 AM | TrackBackYou might be right, though it won't be clear which of the two is stronger for several weeks.
I think the best strategy for the Republicans in the short term is to clear the field for Schwarzenegger and McClintock. Simon is out (thank God), now Uberroth (whose unexpected rise is coming directly out of Arnold's support) needs to follow him out the door. Until both candidates are out, it will be impossible to determine which of the two candidates is the stronger.
That said, whoever of the two (whether McClintock OR Schwarzenegger) is not the stronger candidate by mid-to-late September needs to step aside and endorse his fellow Republican.
Posted by: Sean at August 24, 2003 11:07 AM (Permalink)Don't ever rely too much on surface poll numbers. Cruz being ahead is more a matter of timing than ultimate relative strength. With only one major Democrat in the race, it's natural that Democrat voters are coalescing earlier than Republican voters.
McClintock will obviously pick up support in next poll with Simon out. And the next after that as voters see how close he's getting to Arnold.
California Insider's point that 10 to 15% who vote against recalls fail to vote in the replacement is very key.
That and conservative enthusiasm make Estrich's analysis simplistic and bogus.
This is the best news I have had in a while; and I am especially happy to see McClintock's star rising. Please, please, please folks -- stick with Tom! I would love to see a debate between just Tom and Cruz, because I don't think any other two men have as good a grasp of California as those two do. If this poll is true, it is indeed splendid for my side... but 44 days is an eternity!
Cheers
Posted by: Hugo Schwyzer at August 24, 2003 01:08 PM (Permalink)I'm with y'all in wishing it could be a Cruz-Tom race. Here you have two people who are experienced leaders in their respective parties, and who are articulating clearly differentiatable visions of what the state government can/should do. Arnold is the sideshow, despite the fact that he's getting all the attention.
Posted by: Seth at August 27, 2003 11:26 AM (Permalink)